Characterizing Continental US Hurricane Risk: Which Intensity Metric Is Best?

The damage potential of a hurricane is widely considered to depend more strongly on an integrated measure the wind field, such as kinetic energy (IKE), than point-based measure, maximum sustained speed (Vmax). Recent work has demonstrated that minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) also field. This study investigates how well historical continental US predicted by MSLP compared both Vmax and IKE for United States landfalls period 1988–2021. We first show entire North Atlantic basin much better correlated with (rrank = 0.50) 0.26). then normalized 0.83) either 0.67) or 0.65). For Georgia Maine specifically, similar levels skill at predicting damage, whereas provides effectively no predictive power. Conclusions extend power dissipation well, two quantities are highly because radii closely follow Modified Rankine vortex. physical relationship discussed. In addition representing easier via aircraft surface observations IKE, it already routinely estimated operationally. conclude ideal metric characterizing risk.